Abstracts

 

 

 

Evaluation of Effective Variables on

Behavior of National Saving in Iranian Economy

 

Ahmad Mojtahed, Ph.D.   Afshin Karami, M. A.

 

NATIONAL SAVING / ECONOMIC GROWTH / PER CAPITA INCOME / INFLATION / IRAN

In This Study, we attempted to evaluate the effect of economic growth, per capita income, dependency ratio, inflation and the Iranian Revolution on saving rate of Iranian economy. For this purpose, we developed a model based on a model of Aghevli et al in IMF and estimated it for the period of 1959-2000.

The results of the our estimation with using auto-regressive distributed lag shows our dynamic model approach toward the long-run equilibrium model. Also, the error correction model which indicate the relationship between saving rate with independent variables in the short run shows that the adjustment coefficient toward equilibrium is 0.63 and this amount of saving rate disequilibrium adjusted from one period to the next one.

In addition, National saving rate with respect to the independent variables has the same behaviour in the short run as well as in the long-run. The effect of growth rate and per capita income on saving rate is positive and inflation is negative and therefore, we can conclude that with higher population growth rate or rise of unemployment, dependency ratio will increase and saving rate will decrease.

 

Expectations, Uncertainty and Disequilibrium in

Agricultural Products Markets of Iran,

(Case study of Potatoes and Onions)
G. K. Haddad, Ph.D.

 

EXPECTATION / DISEQUILIBRIUM / UNCERTAINTY / POTATOES / ONIONS / IRAN

During past years Iranian farmers and consumers of potatoes and Onions have confronted with a wide ranges of fluctuations in prices and products. This paper presents an econometric model for the market in the context of disequilibrium theory. The model is composed of four equations; supply, demand, price adjustment, and short side condition of market. The supply equations consist of expected prices which are formed adaptively, input prices and uncertainty in the output prices. The market demand equations are specified in an ad-hoc way. In the models following the application of a price adjustment mechanism, the output prices have became as endogenous and stochastic variables.

Results demonstrated that potatoes cultivators are risk avers but onion producers are risk lovers and on the demand side both of the products are considered as inferior goods in relation to per capita real income.

Preference of Resource Allocation in the Sectors of Industry

in Isfahan Province by Method of

Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)

Majid Sameti, Ph.D.     Morteza Sameti, Ph.D.     Maryam Asghari, M. A.

 

RESOURCE ALLOCATION / INDUSTRY / AHP/ ISFAHAN

The scarcity of economic resources is problem that even technological progress could not found any solution for it. It causes competition between economic goals in level of Micro-Macroeconomics program. The theorists and politicians try to find solution with resource allocation method.

The method of Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a new tool of mathematical techniques for resource allocation idea that make decision on basis of expert choice.

In this research we approach this method to determine the preferences of resource allocation in the sectors of agriculture and industry in Isfahan province.

In spite of research limitations, we have determined the preference of each sector. The most important out-put of this research is application of a theorical method that it can be used as first step for the other research in future.

Calculation of Domestic Resource Costs for Agricultural Crops
in East Azarbaijan Province

T. Hooman, M. A.    M.A. Hosseini, M. A.

 

COMPETITIVNESS / COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE / DOMESTIC RESOURCE COST / AGRICULTURAL CROPS / EAST AZARBAIJAN PROVINCE / IRAN

During last decade, East Azarbaijan comparing with other provinces, has been always in the first order in the case of non-oil exports. This province has high potential in production and export of agricultural crops. However, success in international trade requires determination the priorities in competitiveness among products and also more efficiently plantation of agricultural crops in the province. For this purpose we try to address the comparative advantage in production of 14 crops of province. So we apply the index of Domestic Resource Cost (DRC) and determine competitive power and priority of those crops based on DRC.

The results of calculation of DRC Index are grouped in three categories. In the first category 8 crops including irrigated wheat, irrigated barley, irrigated pea, sunflower, rain fed watermelon, irrigated cucumber, potato, tomato have DRC lower then one, So they have comparative advantage compared with other ones. In the second group there are four crops that have DRC greater than one including rain fed wheat, rain fed pea, rain fed pulses and bean. But two crops including rain fed barley and onion have DRC close to one, and belong to third group. On the approach of irrigated or rain fed production of crops, it is considered that the crops of irrigated production have had DRC lower than crops of rain fed plantation. This is because the drought and little rainfalls during 1377-78 crop year. So investing in the stable water resources and developing the model of irrigated production compared to rain fed plantation are two suggestions of this study. Based on the DRCs results, the area of first group should be developed, and the area second group should be reduced or at least the performance in the yield raised, therefore by reducing the cost of inputs, a base for recovery of DRCs should be provided.

 

Evaluating The Efficient Pricing Model For the Strategic Agricultural Products

Abdorasoul Ghasemi, M.A.    GholamReza Peikani, Ph.D.

 

PRICING MODEL / STRATEGIC AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS / IRAN

Since pricing of agricultural products has an important role in decision making for production, in this research, it is tried to evaluate how much we have access to high and low level goals of decision making in agronomy sector.

With due attention to constraint of the resources such as water and land with integration of farmer’s and high levels goals a model is designed in quantitative frame with title of goal programming. To evaluate amount of access to national goals like self-sufficiency, food security and export development. Also efficient price and optimum cropping pattern for 8 strategic products in 28 provinces of country by considering of model frame, has been reformatted.

Results shows that current price and cropping pattern in most of the provinces of country is not efficient and optimum and it is feasible to improve the access to goals with modifying of current cropping pattern and pricing in national and province levels.

A Study of Income Distribution in Iran:

 Social Accounting Matrix

Zorar Permeh, M. A.               Rahim Dabbagh, M. A.

 

INCOME DISTRIBUTION / SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIX / IRAN

The paper studies the income distribution (i.e. how the income of production activities of households and production factors are affected by changes in exogenous variables). The results indicate that the study of income distribution in macro-models is of great importance. Since these models take all of the direct and indirect linkages between the economic and social sectors by considering the whole economy. Scenario simulation showed that among the ten sectors under study the agricultural sector is the most income distributing followed by the non-durable manufactured goods sub sector, on the other hand the full 100 percent of income generated in the sectors of mines, durable manufacture goods, transportation, financial services and personal services are distributed inside the relevant sectors without any linkages to others. The labor force in manufacturing and services sectors lose the most income due to changes in exogenous demand (investment and exports), while the agricultural labor earn the most. In the capital account side, the capital receive of manufacturing and mines sectors decrease due to the shock on exogenous variables but the capital receive of agricultural and services sectors increase. The income distribution made by export and investment increase in agricultural and service sectors, on household income it is revealed that the increase in the demand for agricultural sector has the highest positive impact on household income.  Followed by the mines, manufacturing and services sectors. Furthermore except the agricultural and non-durable sectors demand the final demand of other sectors have a negative impact on rural household income distribution. On the other hand these two sectors have the greatest negative impact on the distribution of the income of urban capital owner household.

The Position of Electricity in WTO

AliReza Gharabaghi, M.A.

 

GATS / GATT / WTO / COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE / ELECTRICITY

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates, electricity will grow faster than any other end-use demand of world energy by 2.8% per year. Progress in global process of privatization of electricity, contemporaneous with break of the chain of production, transformation and distribution, and separation between electricity as a good and its services, has resulted in the growth of international electricity trade. This trade is based on either cooperation of competition. Beside this trend, countries with rich energy sources like Russia and Saudi Arabia are on the way of accession to the World Trade Organization, and consequently energy discussions including electricity discussions will be more clear in WTO.

This will be a good opportunity for countries, which have access to rich, and assured sources of energy to lead actively the direction of definitions, attitudes, opinions and rules of electricity trade in WTO in accordance with their own national interests. These countries, surveying their comparative advantage in power industry, will be able to strengthen their position in export of electricity, and to utilize better their energy-intensive industries.