Abstracts

 

 

An Optimal Test For Equilibrium Hypothesis in Framework
of GMM.

 

Jafar Ebadi., Ph.D               Gholam Rreza Keshavarz.Haddad., Ph.D.

 

This research, which is based on theoretical and empirical findings of H.Hwang (1980), who formulated equilibrium hypothesis as stability of parameters in a reduced form equation, and Donald W.K. Andrews (1996), who introduced test statistics like sup W(.), sup LM(.) and sup LR(.) for parameter stability hypothesis testing against alternatives, appropriate test statistics for equilibrium hypothesis are derived. In the calculation of estimators and statistics GMM are used. Our findings confirm that, for our data from agricultural sector of Iran and the considered period of time (1961-1996), null hypothesis is rejected by sup W(.) as well as CUSUM test. But the power of the latter in comparison with the former is considerable.

 

Survey of  Interactive Effects of Production and Exports

 in the Economy of Iran

by using Simultaneous Equations

 

Farzad Karimi,Ph.D. Ali Rashedi,Ph.D.

 

 

The present paper surveys the mutual influence of production and exports, with emphasize on non-oil exports and its effective factors by employing two-phase minimum square method. The results show that both non-oil exports and GDP have meaningful effects on each other but, the effects of GDP on non-oil exports is much higher. On the other hand, influence of monetary variables such as exchange rates and terms of trade, together with factors such as work, capital assets and imports on non-oil exports are calculated and analyzed as well. The relation and the extent of each variable’s effects are also defined.

Comparing the Social Evaluation Criterions of Activities and Potential Comparative Advantages of Industrial Exports

 

Allah Morad Seif, Ph.D.

 

Determination of comparative advantages in the economy with spreed price distortions naturally is difficult and needs to apply social evaluation criterions. Three conceptually related criterions, domestic resource costs (DRC), social cost-benefit (SCB), and net social profitability (NSP), have widely accepted and used with those circumstances.

The purpose of this paper, first is to review methodological literature of these social criterions. Then after defining problems which arises with their modeling in practical studings. A new operational approach based on the cost accounting technique is proposed. Finally DRC, SCB and NSP criterions for a sample of selected industrial activities in Iran based on the new approach have been calculated and their resultes have been analyzed .

 

Policies of Adjustment in the First Welfare and
Food Security Program in Isfahan Province

 

Sadegh Bakhtiari      ,Ph.D.     Khadijeh Nasrollahi,M.A.   Mostafa Emad-zadeh,Ph.D.

 

Economic adjustment policies in Iran have been implemented with the aim of eradicating subsidies, decreasing the government’s budget deficit and economic privatization, since 1989. Their objectives included organizational reengineering, promoting market efficiency and accessing resources more efficiently.  Implications of food security policy is the subject of this paper. Evaluating nutritious consumption pattern and reviewing the food intake of urban and rural societies for the period of 1989 to 1993 ( the beginning and end of the first Development Plan of I.R. Iran)  advocate the following results;

 In 1989, the indicative individual in the urban and rural areas of Isfahan has always received higher than standard energy, protein, iron and calcium, whilst in 1983, i.e. the end of the first I.R. Iran development plan, this index deteriorated.

Regarding nutritious intake, although the indicative urban individual intake exceeded the intake of rural individual in 1989, but in 1993 this picture reversed and it seems that the rural individual received higher intakes.

The nutritious intake of urban and rural societies implies that the value of food intake by individuals in urban areas relative to rural areas has sharply deteriorated from 1993 compared to 1989 and the urban individual intake has declined to the level of mal-nutritious position.

Evaluation of Self-sufficiency programs of Imam Khomeini Rescue Committee in Improving

Food Security in Villages

Case Study: Fasa City Central Parts and Nowbandegan

 

Abdol-reza Eftekhari,Ph.D.     Hojatollah Sharafi,M.A.

 

 In development and planning literature "evaluation" is one of the necessities of planning procedure. Denying this procedure not only makes the planning and decision making process incomplete but also eliminates dynamism from the optimum decision making process and sustainable development feedback.  Taking into consideration the importance of the subject and in order to correctly improve future schemes, decision making and planning for sustainable development, evaluation becomes more important than ever.

 

Although, the effects of such schemes can be positive or negative, the aim of this paper is to evaluate the implications of self-sufficiency programs of Imam Khomeini Committee in  Fasa City central parts and Nowbandegan. This will help to identify the effectiveness of the said schemes in development of the region, in particular, from food security point of view. Based on the mentioned definition, the present assumption of this paper is to find out a meaningful relation between implemented schemes of Imam Khomeini Rescue Committee and food security of rural dwellers.

 

The Imam Khomeini Rescue Committee is one the foundations that conduct self-sufficiency programs, including agricultural, services and industrial schemes in rural areas e.g. in 35 villages of Fasa. This paper examines the implications such programs with regard to two patterns of durable consumer goods and food consumer ingredients indicators before and after the conducting of the program in Fasa.

 

The methodology of the paper is descriptive and analytical. By taking advantage of panel method, the living condition of the rural dwellers before and after the execution of the program is studied. Non-parametric techniques such as Wilkakson, Friedman, and McNamar are use for the sake of comparison. The results indicate that the assumption is with 95 percent confidence acceptable.

 

Analysis of Production and Exportation Capabilities of

Food Industries in Iran

 

Neda Farah-bakhsh,M.A.       Bita Nowrouzi,,M.A.

 

 Food industries can play an efficacious role not only in providing food security and development of agricultural sector, but also in the country’s industrial exports expansion. Taking into account the objectives of the Third Economic Development Plan (exports boost) indicate that this sector and its sub-sectors are on the priority list of the industrial investment.

 

The first step in planning for the production and exports of foods industries and setting the priorities of investment in this sector is to identify its export strengths. The present paper attempts to conduct a compatible comparison of industrial activity performance between food industries and other industrial sectors, with emphasize on the importance and place of this industry. Further, by benefiting from key indices such as employment and production, the trend of developments in industrial sub-sectors of food industries will be examined. Consequently, by using prevalent exports relative advantage indices, food industries comparative advantages are defined. Pivots of this study are focused around the perspective of exportation and production potentials of Iran’s food industries.

 

Exchange and Capital Controls as Barriers to Trade

 

Translated by: Seifollah Sadehgi Yarandi

 

This paper considers the effect of exchange and capital controls on trade in the gravity-equation framework, in which bilateral exports depend on the distance between countries, the countries’ size and wealth, tariff barriers, and exchange and capital controls. The extent of exchange and capital controls is measured by unique indices. In view of the degree to which countries have liberalized their exchange systems, controls on current payments and transfers are found to be a minor impediment to trade, while capital controls significantly reduce exports into developing and transition economies. Thus, further capital account liberalization could sigtnificantly foster trade.